Us Recession Risk 2024. Employers have slowed hiring, adding an average of about 170,000 jobs each month for the last three months, and just 114,000 in july, versus 267,000 a month. The risk of a us recession by the first quarter of 2024 has hit 72% as the fed hikes rates to curb inflation.
Economists increased the probability of a us recession in the next year to 25% from 15%, but said there are several reasons not to. Us bond markets are betting that the american economy is on the verge of a recession and the federal reserve has to start easing the monetary policy aggressively.